The ace-to-five companion sheet: exact dealing odds, what the table holds, and all 154 starting shapes ranked by showdown win rate. No straight or flush worries here — only low cards matter.
Exact odds — every possible starting hand enumerated.
| Holding off the deal | Odds | Holding off the deal | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| ace + 1 more wheel card (2 3 4 5) | 27.36% | pat 8 or better | 2.21% |
| ace + 2 more wheel cards | 11.14% | pat 7 or better | 0.83% |
| ace + 3 more wheel cards | 1.54% | pat 6 or better | 0.24% |
| any 2 distinct wheel ranks | 58.47% | pat wheel | 0.04% |
| any 3 distinct wheel ranks | 17.91% | 3 distinct ranks A–7 | 45.11% |
| any 4 distinct wheel ranks | 1.91% | 4 distinct ranks A–7 | 11.17% |
| all 5 wheel ranks dealt | 0.04% | 5 distinct ranks A–7 | 0.83% |
200,000 simulated deals per table size, card removal honored. A “premium start” is three or more wheel cards.
| Opponents | ≥1 pat 8 | ≥1 premium start | ≥1 strong one-card draw* | Premium starts out there |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2.2% | 17.8% | 11.2% | none 82% · one 18% |
| 2 | 4.3% | 33.1% | 21.3% | none 67% · one 31% · both 2.6% |
| 3 | 6.5% | 46.1% | 30.6% | none 54% · one 39% · two 7% · three 0.3% |
| 4 | 8.6% | 57.3% | 39.1% | none 43% · one 44% · two 12% · 3+ 1.1% |
| 5 | 10.7% | 66.2% | 46.5% | none 34% · one 46% · two 18% · 3+ 2.5% |
*four distinct ranks 7 or lower — a one-card draw at a 7.
Second draw is done: you’re in position and everyone drawing missed. If you stand pat, these are the exact odds you get outdrawn on the final draw. Heads Up: one opponent on the listed draw, outs over 43 unseen cards. Vs. 2 Opponents: both opponents hold the listed draw type and each catches one card — the odds at least one gets there.
| You stand pat with | vs 7-4-2-A (7-4 draw) | vs 6-4-2-A (6-4 draw) | vs A-2-3-4 (wheel draw) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8-5-3-2-A | 23.3%10 outs: 3·5·6 | 23.3%10 outs: 3·5·7 | 32.6%14 outs: 5·6·7·8 |
| 7-6-3-2-A | 16.3%7 outs: 3·5 | 16.3%7 outs: 3·5 | 23.3%10 outs: 5·6·7 |
| 7-5-3-2-A | 7.0%3 outs: 3 | 14.0%6 outs: 3·5 | 23.3%10 outs: 5·6·7 |
| 7-4-3-2-A | 0 outschop only | 16.3%7 outs: 3·5 | 18.6%8 outs: 5·6 |
| 6-5-3-2-A | drawing dead | 7.0%3 outs: 3 | 14.0%6 outs: 5·6 |
| 6-4-3-2-A | drawing dead | 0 outschop only | 9.3%4 outs: 5 |
Winning catches are ranks; counts already account for every card you and the drawing hands block. Chops (identical hands) are not counted as outdraws. Exact enumeration — no simulation noise.
All 154 two-, three-, and four-card classes (X = nine or higher), 10,000 showdowns each: you draw to the shape, both sides finish three draws, heads-up versus a random hand.
Method: hero’s first draw discards exactly the X cards; later draws follow the frozen rollout heuristic on both sides, no betting, ties split. ±0.5pt noise per figure. Generated by the engine that trained the app’s blueprints.